Mexico's currency dropped 4% after a landslide win
While investors expected Claudia Sheinbaum to win, the scale of her party's legislative supermajority suggests they can now dismantle the judicial and electoral bodies that markets rely on for stability. This explores how a 'certain' election result can still trigger a massive capital flight when institutional checks are the actual target.
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Analysis of the June 2, 2024, Mexican general election results.
Breakdown of the Mexican peso's 4% drop and the IPC stock index decline.
Explanation of 'Plan C' and the proposed judicial reforms.
The impact of political supermajorities on emerging market 'carry trades'.
Discussion on the future of nearshoring and the USMCA 2026 review.
- 01Intro1 min
- 02The Paradox of the Expected Landslide2 min
- 03The Target: Judicial Independence3 min
- 04Institutional Erosion and the 'Carry Trade'2 min
- 05The Nearshoring Dilemma3 min
- 06Outro1 min
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