Culture & society
The Long Decline of Violence
11 min
By many measures, humans are far less likely to die violently than in centuries past. Explore the evidence for this remarkable trend, the forces that may have driven it, and the sharp debates about how solid the story really is.
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Show notes
Analysis of global homicide rates from 2000-2023.
Discussion of the 'Long Peace' and the decline of interstate warfare.
Examination of the 'Leviathan' and 'Gentle Commerce' theories.
Critique of the decline narrative based on recent conflicts in Ukraine and Ethiopia.
References to Steven Pinker's 'The Better Angels of Our Nature' and recent World Bank data.
In this episode
- 1Intro1 min
- 2The Statistical Reality of the Homicide Drop3 min
- 3The Long Peace and the Nature of War3 min
- 4The Engines of Pacification2 min
- 5The Counter-Argument: Fragility and Spikes3 min
- 6Outro1 min
Sources
- The World Is Much Less Murderous
- War and Peace | Our World in Data
- Is War in Decline? | Annual Reviews
- The world is getting less violent than most people think | Vox
- Has the Decline of Violence Reversed since
- History and the Decline of Human Violence | Scientific American
- Does Better Angels of Our Nature Hold Up as History?
- A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE By Steven Pinker - Edge.org
- The Decline and Fall of Violence
- Is Human Violence On The Wane? : NPR
- THE BETTER ANGELS
- 600 years of war and peace, in one amazing chart | Vox
- Homicides | Our World in Data
- Homicides | Our World in Data
- Students and Universities
- https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/homicide-rate-age-standardized
- Homicide rate - Our World in Data
- Homicide data: how sources differ and when to use which one
- FastStats - Homicide - CDC
- [PDF] CHAPTER 4 UNDERSTANDING HOMICIDE - UNODC
- https://www.antoniocasella.eu/nume/Eisner_2001.pdf
- Why Crime Rates Are Falling Throughout the Western World
- How effective are our ‘better angels’? Assessing country-level declines in homicide since 1950
- The contribution of age structure to the international homicide decline
- How effective are our ‘better angels’? Assessing country-level declines in homicide since 1950
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