Inflation jumps to 4.3% and makes a Melbourne Cup day rate rise near certain

New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show annual inflation climbed to 4.3 per cent in September, up from 4.0 in August and above expectations, driven by housing and transport costs, with petrol prices jumping 9.4 per cent as the Middle East conflict keeps oil prices high. The Reserve Bank's preferred underlying measure rose 1.0 per cent over the September quarter to 3.6 per cent annually, well above its 2 to 3 per cent target, and deputy governor Andrew Hauser told a Senate hearing the inflation outlook had become materially worse. Markets now put the chance of a 0.25 percentage point rise when the board meets on 3 November at roughly 85 to 87 per cent, and all four major banks expect it, which would take the cash rate from 4.60 to 4.85 per cent, its highest since 2008 and the fifth hike this year. Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who said fuel was the biggest inflation driver, is considering spending reviews including to infrastructure projects in the mid-year budget to ease pressure on the economy. Also in this briefing: One Nation draws level with Labor at 28% as Albanese's approval hits a record low; NAB advertises jobs in India and Vietnam days after cutting 2,500 Australian roles; Ombudsman calls the algorithm deciding aged care support a technological black box.

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