What comes next
Work after AI: which jobs actually change, argued seriously
11 min
Past the hype and the panic, a grounded look at what happens to white-collar work when AI can do much of it — which tasks get automated, which get amplified, and what genuinely new work appears.
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Show notes
Jobs are bundles of tasks, meaning technical capability rarely leads to immediate or total human replacement.
High integration costs mean small businesses adopt artificial intelligence at nearly half the rate of large firms.
Artificial intelligence could drive a fifteen percent global productivity uplift while reallocating fifteen million United States workers.
The ambiguity premium rewards human workers for navigating complex situations that have no single correct answer.
Accountability anchors ensure humans remain liable for high-stakes decisions like approving massive commercial loans.
New job creation is predicted to accelerate by five percent as workers transition into digital conductors.
In this episode
- 1Intro1 min
- 2The Task-Job Fallacy2 min
- 3The Nine Percent Reallocation2 min
- 4The Residual Value of Judgment3 min
- 5New Work and the Five-Year Horizon3 min
- 6Outro1 min
Sources
- How Will AI Impact the Labor Market? | Goldman Sachs
- Will AI replace your job? 4 reasons it might not. | Vox
- How Will AI Impact Your Job? The Evidence, Not the Hype (2026)
- White-Collar Reckoning: How AI Is Remaking Office Work and Shaking Up America's Professionals
- Tasks, Not Jobs — the Most Convenient Reframe in the History of AI
- Why AI won't wipe out white-collar jobs | The Economist - YouTube
- AI Won't Take Your Job, But It Will Reshape It
- Is AI About to Automate Every Office Job? | AI Reality Check - Deep Questions with Cal Newport - Podcast Episode - Podscan.fm
- Scared AI Will Take Your Job? Do This in the Next 30 Days. - Business Insider
- Will AI Replace My Work? The Honest Answer
- The Jobs AI Is Likely to Boost—and Those It May Disrupt | Goldman Sachs
- How artificial intelligence impacts the US labor market | MIT Sloan
- Goldman Sachs Economist Predicts AI Displacing 15 Million Jobs - Business Insider
- The Gap Is the Story: What AI Is Really Doing to Jobs in 2026
- Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Tasks∗ 1footnote 1footnoteFootnotefootnotesFootnotes1footnote 1*Corresponding authors: Matthias Mertens, mmertens@mit.edu; Neil Thompson, neil_t@mit.edu. Address of all authors: We thank David Autor for his insightful comments. We are grateful to Annie Lin, Amelia Michael, Peter Olkhovets, and Tiffany Wang for their excellent work as research assistants. We also thank Justin Viola for excellent software engineering work. Funding for this research was provided by Open Philanthropy and a technology company.
- How much of your job will AI take over? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- AI unlikely to trigger 'Job Apocalypse', it may create uneven workforce disruption: Goldman Sachs Report - The HinduBusinessLine
- AI adoption in business grows steadily but unevenly | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- Acemoglu_Macroeconomics of AI_May 2024
- Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI
- Humans in the Loop:
- Bounded by Risk, Not Capability: Quantifying AI Occupational Substitution Rates via a Tech-Risk Dual-Factor Model
- The Distillation of Work — Seampoint Research | Seampoint
- Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
- Firm Data on AI - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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