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The shrinking world: what falling birth rates do to economies built on growth
12 min
An exploration of the global fertility decline and its impact on the fundamental mechanics of economic growth, pension systems, and innovation.
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Show notes
Shrinking labor pools increase worker bargaining power and wages as the demographic dividend ends.
The global population over sixty-five has tripled since nineteen fifty, straining the intergenerational welfare contract.
Semiconductor research now requires eighteen times more staff than the nineteen seventies to maintain innovation rates.
Japan uses high-value automation and robotics to sustain its economy despite a shrinking workforce.
Seventy-year-olds in twenty twenty-two matched the cognitive abilities of fifty-three-year-olds from the year two thousand.
Global population peaking by the twenty-eighties could reduce carbon emissions and environmental pressure.
In this episode
- 1Intro1 min
- 2The End of the Demographic Dividend3 min
- 3The Arithmetic of the Welfare State3 min
- 4The Empty Planet Scenario2 min
- 5Adaptation and the New Equilibrium3 min
- 6Outro1 min
Sources
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- Will Nothing Stop the Incredible Global Birth Crash?
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- Leaving No One Behind In An Ageing World
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- Estimating the growth effect of the demographic dividend | Macroeconomic Dynamics | Cambridge Core
- Population Decline, Capital Deepening, and Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence - ScienceDirect
- DP21673 Baby Busts and Growth Booms: Demographic Change and the Macroeconomy | CEPR
- The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population
- Dependency and depopulation?
- The Debate over Falling Fertility
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