Fylom
Back to What comes next
The shrinking world: what falling birth rates do to economies built on growth

What comes next

The shrinking world: what falling birth rates do to economies built on growth

12 min

An exploration of the global fertility decline and its impact on the fundamental mechanics of economic growth, pension systems, and innovation.

Listen on the app, request early access:

Show notes

Shrinking labor pools increase worker bargaining power and wages as the demographic dividend ends.

The global population over sixty-five has tripled since nineteen fifty, straining the intergenerational welfare contract.

Semiconductor research now requires eighteen times more staff than the nineteen seventies to maintain innovation rates.

Japan uses high-value automation and robotics to sustain its economy despite a shrinking workforce.

Seventy-year-olds in twenty twenty-two matched the cognitive abilities of fifty-three-year-olds from the year two thousand.

Global population peaking by the twenty-eighties could reduce carbon emissions and environmental pressure.

In this episode

  1. 1Intro1 min
  2. 2The End of the Demographic Dividend3 min
  3. 3The Arithmetic of the Welfare State3 min
  4. 4The Empty Planet Scenario2 min
  5. 5Adaptation and the New Equilibrium3 min
  6. 6Outro1 min

Sources

Fylom generates episodes like this on any topic you're curious about.

Fylom episodes are researched and written by AI. Automated checks help catch inaccuracies, but episodes aren't reviewed by a human and AI can still get things wrong. Treat them as a starting point, not a source of record — more in our accuracy disclaimer.

The shrinking world: what falling birth rates do to economies built on growth — Fylom