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An analysis of the collapse of the June memorandum of understanding and the implications of the indefinite U.S. naval blockade on Iranian shipping.

The International Energy Agency slashed its 2026 supply forecast and warned inventories have fallen by roughly 410 million barrels since the Iran war began, with 8.3 million barrels per day of Gulf output still shut in. With the Strait of Hormuz constrained and two ADNOC tankers attacked Thursday, the market faces a projected supply deficit that threatens a global inflation shock. Listen for what happens when stockpiles run out and whether reopening the strait is even possible.
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